World economic and manufacturing Index

Release time:2013-12-11      Source:admin      Reads:
China’s manufacturing has slightly revived in October; the increase was mainly due to an improvement in output, due to the government’s supportive measures. But the new orders reading declined, indicating downside pressure for economic growth in coming months… The HSBC manufacturing PMI rebounded, but we believe it was mainly due to the pass-through effect, i.e. orders flowed from big, state-owned, enterprises to small ones such as display hand cards manufacturer. We have observed such a trend in previous months, that HSBC’s manufacturing PMI figures lagged behind official ones by about two months.
Details show that the headline increase was led by stronger output, but new orders and new export orders both pulled back in October, suggesting slower demand for display hang cards growth in the coming months… Fundamental challenges, including industry overcapacity, mounting local government debt, rising financial risks and the property bubble, will constrain policy options and we have been expecting a neutral monetary policy stance with a tightening bias since August. The reading should be positive for market sentiment, though good news from the activity side might make investors worried about policy tightening… We believe the government, will tone done its pro-growth rhetoric and gradually taper its mini-stimulus started in July, but we don’t expect a significant tightening.
The PMI data is in line with our relatively benign growth outlook. With global demand momentum likely to gradually pick up as the economic upturn in the U.S. and Europe continues and, importantly, domestic demand momentum of display hand cards remaining solid, we expect GDP growth to exceed the government’s “bottom line” in the coming quarters, In the wake of the global financial crisis, investors in the West expected Chinese banks to swoop in and take advantage of knock-down valuations by buying up struggling financial institutions. But China’s banks have proven to be extremely cautious – and CCB more cautious still than its two major rivals.

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